The rift in relations with the United States will strengthen Europe's position regarding Russia.

 

US President Donald Trump announced the reduction of US participation in NATO with the West immediately after taking office. After that, the European Union announced a united increase in military power to maintain its position.

In this situation, it is believed that EU countries can increase their nuclear capabilities. However, analysts say that instead of investing in nuclear weapons, it is necessary to make EU defense more efficient. At the same time, priority should be given to integrating Russia into a larger collective security organization.

Experts believe that if American troops or strategic nuclear weapons are withdrawn as a result of the new US policy, France will dominate the region. The UK is also being kept in this competition. As a result, the Europeanization of French and British nuclear weapons can become a reality in any way. In addition, the new US policy has also raised concerns that the US's 75-year foreign policy will collapse. Although there are still 100,000 US troops and 100 strategic nuclear weapons in Europe.

These American weapons are deployed in Turkey, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Belgium. If troops or strategic nuclear weapons are withdrawn, Europeanization will be facilitated by the dominance of France and Britain in Europe.

What is needed to increase Europe's capabilities

Experts believe that Europe can realize this potential through several steps. Among them, the European nuclear states need to integrate their "national interests" as "European interests" (reflected in the Lisbon Treaty) and a collective defense clause similar to NATO's Article 5. To implement this step, some other things such as information exchange, consultation, joint planning, joint exercises and co-financing will have to be implemented.

In addition, French Dual Capable Aircraft (DCA) or fighter jets can be deployed in Germany or Poland. According to analysts, the final step would be to create a U-nuclear bomb in the European Defense Union (EDU). However, it remains to be seen how helpful the Ukraine war will be in taking such a step.

The politics of nuclear weapons in Europeanization

The idea that nuclear weapons act as a deterrent to any attack is uncertain. Many nuclear-armed states (Israel, India, the United Kingdom) have been attacked by various non-nuclear-armed states. However, there is no doubt that it is one of the most destructive weapons.

The widespread use of this weapon could destroy not just a region or a country, but an entire planet. For this reason, Emmanuel Macron said, ‘Even if Russia uses strategic nuclear weapons in Ukraine, France will not retaliate with nuclear weapons.’

Meanwhile, it is believed that sophisticated hypersonic missiles developed using AI technology will further weaken the so-called nuclear stability. As a result, this weapon could replace nuclear deterrence. So there is also doubt about increasing nuclear capabilities by spending more money.

Beyond this, there are several discussions about increasing nuclear power in Europe. One of these issues is - who will control Europe until there is an EDU? Although Macron has made it clear that control of Europe will remain in his hands. If this happens, the question is whether taxpayers in Germany and other countries will be willing to co-finance the control of war in the hands of others.

In addition, through the Europeanization of French nuclear weapons, the EU legalizing nuclear weapons will complicate the fight against proliferation. The question also arises as to how sustainable it will be to urge Iran not to develop nuclear weapons when the EU is building its own nuclear arsenal.

Analysts believe that it would be much better if European Union leaders spent more time strengthening diplomatic relations with Russia than building European defense. In their opinion, now is the right time to end the war in Ukraine, not only for humanitarian reasons, but also for economic reasons. Such a relationship could prevent European defense from creating separate military forces.

European NATO member states currently spend $485 billion on defense, far more than Russia. So instead of investing in weapons of mass destruction, focusing on making EU defense more efficient and integrating Russia into a larger collective security organization would save Europe money and strengthen regional security and defense structures.